US policies run risk of creating new financial crisis

  The US economy is doing well. But the next recession - and there is always another recession - could be very bad.

  The US Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that GDp growth in the second quarter of 2018 reached 4.1 percent - the highest since the 4.9 percent seen under former US president Barack Obama in 2014. Another year of growth will match the record 10-year expansion of the 1990s. Add to that low unemployment, and things are looking good.

  But this cannot continue forever. Given massive global corporate debt and a soaring US stock market, one possible trigger for a downturn in the coming years is a negative shock that could send securities tumbling.

  That shock could be homegrown, coming in the form, say, of renewed inflation or of the continued escalation of the trade war that US president Donald Trump has started. The shock could also come from abroad. For example, the current financial and currency crisis in Turkey could spread to other emerging markets. The euro crisis is not truly over, despite the completion of Greece's bailout program, with Italy, in particular, representing a major source of risk. Even China is vulnerable to slowing growth and high levels of debt.

  Whatever the immediate trigger, the consequences for the US are likely to be severe, for a simple reason: The US government continues to pursue pro-cyclical fiscal, macro-prudential, and even monetary policies. While it is hard to get counter-cyclical timing exactly right, that is no excuse for pro-cyclical policy, an approach that puts the US in a weak position to manage the next inevitable shock.

  During economic upswings, the budget deficit usually falls, at least as a share of GDp. But with the US now undertaking its most radically pro-cyclical fiscal expansion since the late 1960s, and perhaps since World War II, the Congressional Budget Office projects that the federal government's fast-growing deficit will exceed $1 trillion this year.

  America's deficit is being blown up on both the revenue and expenditure sides. Although a reduction in the corporate tax rate was needed, the tax bill that Congressional Republicans enacted last December was nowhere near revenue-neutral, as it should have been. Like the Republican-led governments of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, the Trump administration claims to favor small government, but is actually highly profligate. As a result, when the next recession comes, the US will lack fiscal space to respond.

  The Trump administration's embrace of financial deregulation is also pro-cyclical and intensifies market swings. The Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress have gutted Obama's fiduciary rule, which would have required professional financial advisers to put their clients' interests first when advising them on assets invested through retirement plans. They have also rolled back sensible regulations for housing finance, including risk-retention rules, which force mortgage originators to keep some "skin in the game," and requirements that borrowers make substantial down payments, which work to ensure ability to pay.

  The White House and Congress have also been acting to gut the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer protection Act, which strengthened the financial system in several ways. The Consumer Financial protection Bureau - established by Dodd-Frank to protect borrowers with payday, student, and car loans - is also now being curtailed.

  Like most major legislation, Dodd-Frank could be improved. Compliance costs were excessive, especially for small banks, and the original threshold for stress-testing "too big to fail" institutions - those with $50 billion in assets - was too low. But the current US leadership is going too far in the other direction, including by raising the threshold for stress tests to $250 billion and letting non-banks off the hook. This increases the risk of an eventual recurrence of the 2007-08 financial crisis.

  Now is the right point in the cycle to raise banks' capital requirements as called for under Dodd-Frank. The cushion would minimize the risk of a future banking crisis.

  Other countries do macro-prudential policy better. Europeans have applied the counter-cyclical capital buffer to their banks. Some Asian countries raise banks' reserve requirements and homeowners' loan-to-value ceilings during booms, and lower them during financial downturns.

  When it comes to monetary policy, the US Federal Reserve has been doing a good job; but its independence is increasingly under attack from Republican politicians. If this assault succeeds, counter-cyclical monetary policy would be impaired.

  In the past, the Fed has moderated recessions by cutting short-term interest rates by around 500 basis points. But, with those rates currently standing at only 2 percent, such a move is impossible. That is why, as Martin Feldstein recently pointed out, the Fed should be "raising the rate when the economy is strong," thereby giving "the Fed room to respond in the next economic downturn with a significant reduction."

  Most Fed critics disagree. In 2010, they attacked the Fed for its monetary easing, even though unemployment was still above 9 percent. Now Trump says he is "not thrilled" about the Fed raising interest rates, even though unemployment is below 4 percent. This is tantamount to advocating pro-cyclical monetary policy.

  As we approach the 10th anniversary of the global financial crisis, we should recall how we got there. From 2003 to 2007, the US government pursued fiscal expansion and financial deregulation - an approach that, even at the time, was recognized as likely to constrain the government's ability to respond to a recession. If the US continues on its current path, no one should be surprised if history repeats itself.


Posted by 寂しい夜 at 12:06Comments(0)財經


Chinese remier meets ExxonMobil chairman and CEO

  Chinese remier Li Keqiang on Friday met with Darren Woods, ExxonMobil chairman and CEO.

  The healthy develoment of China-U.S. two-way investment is not only beneficial to both sides but also contributes to the stable develoment of world economy and the growth of international trade, said Li, calling on all countries in the world to jointly safeguard trade and investment liberalization and facilitation.

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  Li said that China welcomes ExxonMobil to build a large-scale wholly-owned etrochemical roject in China, exressing the hoe that foreign comanies, including ExxonMobil, seize the oortunity to cooerate with China to better achieve mutual benefits and win-win results in accordance with market rules and commercial rinciles.

  Li said that the achievements of China's develoment over the ast 40 years benefited from reform and oening u, and China will continue to follow this ath.

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  The Chinese side will further relax market access, treat Chinese and foreign comanies equally, better rotect intellectual roerty rights, continuously otimize the business environment and rovide more convenience for foreign comanies to invest in China, in order for China to remain a hot investment destination for foreign comanies, said Li.

  The Chinese remier hoed that U.S. comanies, including ExxonMobil, will actively exand their investment in China and rovide an objective and fair voice to romote eole to ositively and rationally consider China's reform, oening u and develoment.

  During Woods' visit to China, ExxonMobil discussed with the Chinese side on building a wholly-owned etrochemical roject worth 10 billion U.S. dollars in China's Guangdong rovince.

  Noting that ExxonMobil has a long cooerative relationshi with China, Woods exressed the areciation of China's recent measures on exanding oening u, otimizing the business environment and rotecting intellectual roerty rights.

  Woods said such measures by China will not only hel China achieve its develoment goals but will also rovide a wide range of oortunities for enterrises such as ExxonMobil to conduct cooeration in China.

  Woods said that many of ExxonMobil's develoment goals fit with the China's develoment lan, and he is confident in the success of relevant cooeration rojects.

  ExxonMobil is willing to use world-class technology to hel China's manufacturing and carry out long-term cooeration with China biomarkers for PD-L1.


Posted by 寂しい夜 at 17:07Comments(0)財經


Eat high C fruits every day

1. eat high C fruits every day
Vitamin C-rich foods can be a good whitening food. To maintain healthy, bright, sun-damaged skin, almost every dermatologist will ask you to eat more fruits and vegetables rich in vitamin C.
If you eat 2 or 3 servings of fruit a day, then select one of the many types of vitamin C-rich guava, kiwi, strawberry, cherry tomato, or citrus.

When making salad, it is recommended to add bright bell peppers and several green broccoli, not only pleasing to the eye, but also intake of large amounts of vitamin C. Raw peppers, crisp and refreshing, nor because of high temperature cooking and destruction of vitamin C.

2. Moderate intake of yellow-red fruits and vegetables

Red orange yellow fruits and vegetables and dark green leafy vegetables such as carrot, mango, red and yellow tomatoes, papaya, sweet potatoes, pumpkin, sweet potato leaves, spinach, etc., mostly contain large amounts of carotenoids and other phytochemicals, Helps anti-oxidant and strengthens skin's resistance.
However, such whitening food to pay attention to intake, fat-soluble carotene intake will be accumulated in excess, not only toxic, but also easy to make the skin appear yellowish, stop eating, take some time to slowly Metabolic out, should not eat too much.

Whitening food every day to eat high-dimensional c of fruit, moderate intake of yellow and red fruits and vegetables! Are whitening skin care! Good effect! So can try! See if they become whiter! Beauty is the key!

Posted by 寂しい夜 at 17:45Comments(0)美容


pillows to help sleep

Poor performance of sleep performance, there are many, such as insomnia, dreams, the presence of these conditions indicate that your poor quality of sleep. If you sleep in poor state for a long time, then you will easily trance, physical decline, easy to get sick. So, when there is a poor quality of sleep, it should be adjusted immediately. Here are a variety of health care methods, to improve the quality of sleep will be of great help, you can try.Searching for hong kong package ? GuangDong Hotel have a wide range of rooms are available for individuals, families and groups, and we will provide a remarkable experience for you.

1, breathing rate adjustment method
Do the following tricks: Parallel to the supine in the bed, the body was in a state of natural relaxation, closed eyes, with the tongue to withstand the palate, hands crossed on the navel site, slowly inhale from the nose, and then exhale slowly from the nose, Smell the mouth to breathe, call the word, will soon go to sleep.

2, pillows to help sleep
This method of improving the quality of sleep, in order to effectively help sleep and achieve good sleep quality, you can choose Suanzaoren, Bozi, Schisandra, Acacia flowers, magnets (the same weight) made of pillows to use pillow for some time After sleep quality will be rapidly improved.

3, diet adjustment method
In order to improve the quality of sleep, you can also take diet method, take Zaoren 30 grams, 30 grams of lily, the first jujube decoction made soup, and then remove the slag, then add lily cooked cooked rotten every day before going to sleep at night 1 Hour hot drink good effect.

4, Chinese foot bath method
In order to better help sleep, but also can take the method of foot treatment. Take Polygalaceae, saffron 9 grams each, Zaoren, magnet, keel, peach kernel each 15 grams, made with water twice, until the water temperature soak your feet in the liquid when the solution is best soaked in the foot. Soak 1 night before going to bed every night, soaking time should not be less than half an hour.
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5, ginger vinegar blisters feet method

The remedy for insomnia is to wash the fresh ginger into slices into the pot to boil, then add a spoonful of vinegar into the washbasin, and so the temperature soak your feet, about half an hour on it. With this method foot bath for 15 days, insomnia will slowly disappear.

6, music hypnosis method
A large number of studies have shown that music helps to sleep. If you can listen to music before going to bed, people can feel calm, breathe evenly and have great effect on relieving insomnia symptoms. In addition, listening to about 45 minutes before going to bed to ease the jazz, sleepless insomnia allows patients to fall asleep quickly and maintain a good adequate sleep. Also, a slow and gentle folk and instrumental melody of about 60 beats per minute is also a good medicine for treating insomnia. These regimens only apply to the early insomnia, if you are a serious insomnia, I suggest you quickly rushed to the regular hospital for treatment, so as not to delay the treatment effect.
There are many ways to improve the quality of sleep, we introduce today's approach, you can make your sleep quality greatly improved. Good sleep is an important safeguard for your health, so no matter which age you are in, you should ensure that you have a good quality of sleep. Xiao Bian Tip If your poor sleep with the disease, it should go to the hospital for treatment, cure the disease, sleep will be improved.
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Posted by 寂しい夜 at 10:42Comments(0)美容


I was told that it came

After the hair-cutting is over, we sit down to dinner, my father and Ivan Vasilyevich in armchairs at each end of the table, the children on the sofa, and my mother opposite them. Ivan Vasilyevich took his meals with us until he was married. In winter we ate slowly and sat talking afterward. Ivan Vasilyevich would smoke and blow ingenious rings. Sometimes Sasha or Liza was made to read aloud. My father would doze in the recess of the stove. Once in a while in the evening we played old-maid, from which a great deal of noise and laughter resulted, and sometimes a little quarreling. We thought it particularly amusing to cheat my father, who played carelessly, and laughed when he lost My mother, on the other hand, played better, and would grow excited and watch my oldest brother sharply to see that he was not cheating her.

It was twenty-three kilometres from Yanovka to the nearest post-office, and more than thirty-five to the railroad. From there it was a long way again to the Government offices, to the stores and to a civic centre, and still farther to the world with its great events. Life at Yanovka was regulated entirely by the rhythm of the toil on the farm. Nothing else mattered, nothing but the price of grain in the world market. We never saw any magazines or newspapers in the country in those days. That followed later, when I had become a high-school boy. We got letters only on special occasions. Sometimes a neighbor would find a letter for us at Bobrinetz and carry it in his pocket for a week or two. A letter was an event; a telegram was a catastrophe. Some one explained to me that telegrams came on wires, but with my own eyes I saw a man on horse back bring a telegram from Bobrinetz for which my father had to pay two roubles and fifty kopecks. A telegram was a piece of paper, like a letter. There were words written on it in pencil. Did the wind blow it along a wire? by electricity. That was still worse. Uncle Abram once carefully explained to me: “The current comes over the wire and makes marks on a ribbon. Repeat what I have said.” I repeated: “Current over the wire and marks on a ribbon.”

My father and mother lived out their hard-working lives with some friction, but very happily on the whole. My mother came from a family of townspeople who looked down upon farmers, with their rough hands. But my father had been handsome and graceful in his youth, with a manly, energetic face. He succeeded in getting together the means that later enabled him to buy Yanovka. The young woman who had been taken from the city and flung out onto the lonely steppes found it difficult at first to adjust herself to the stern conditions of life on a farm. But she succeeded at last in adapting herself perfectly, and once in the traces, she did not relinquish her toil for forty-five years. Of the eight children born of this marriage, four survived. I was the fifth in order of birth. Four died in infancy, of diphtheria and of scarlet fever, deaths almost as unnoticed as was the life of those who survived. The land, the cattle, the poultry, the mill, took all my parents’ time; there was none left for us. The seasons succeeded one another, and waves of farm work swept over domestic affection. There was no display of tenderness in our family, especially during my early years, but there was a strong comradeship of labor between my father and mother.

“Give your mother a chair!” my father would cry as soon as my mother crossed the threshold, white with dust from the mill.

“Mashka! Light the samovar quick,” my mother would command even before she had reached the house. “Your master will soon be in from the fields.” Both knew what it was to have reached the limit of physical exhaustion.

My father was undoubtedly superior to my mother, both in intellect and character. He was deeper, more reserved, and more tactful He had an unusually good eye both for things and people. My father and mother bought very little, especially during our early years; they both knew how to save every penny. My father never made a mistake in what he bought: cloth, hats, shoes, horses or machinery, he always got his money’s worth. “I don’t like money,” he once said to me later, as if apologizing for being so mean, “but I like it less when there is none of it. It is bad to need money and not have any.” He spoke a broken mixture of the Russian and Ukrainian tongues, with a preponderance of the Ukrainian. He judged people by their manners, their faces and their habits, and he always judged them correctly.  

Posted by 寂しい夜 at 17:26Comments(0)


I belonged to his totem

I have never been able to find a logical explanation of this singular occurrence of leaves dripping water from one branch only. When the period of mourning was over, and they were allowed once more to eat of the totem, Dhalja brought me a wooden scoop filled with this edible bark, telling me that as the tree had shown it, . The bark was sweet and not unpalatable Cloud Monitoring System, and I returned the compliment in sugar, which he found sweeter still.

When the initiation and the Wanji-wanji were over, the times came for the grand finale of these ceremonies, the introduction of new members into the totems, and the addition of new boards to the sacred store. It was then that I myself was initiated into the freedom of all the totems, in a purely religious ceremony intensely impressive.

All natives who could claim connection with the remnants of the Eucla totem groups had gradually assembled in the vicinity of my camp-mallee-hen, curlew, native cat, wild currant, kangaroo and emu and dingo, edible bark, turkey and many others. The elders of the various groups brought me portions of their traditional totem foods, all cooked except the water-roots, and presented on a bark scoop. Very early one morning I was awakened by the insistent clicking of boomerangs outside my tent. I went out to find a long file of more than fifty men forming a half-circle reenex. All carried spears, and, all were naked except for their decorations-crazy stripes of red ochre and white pipe-clay, crests of cockatoo feathers, hair-belts and tassels reddened with blood, and waist-belts with a tuft of emu-feather behind. The camp was silent, for the women and children had been sent some miles away.

In my sober Edwardian coat and skirt, a sailor hat with fly-veil, and neat high-heeled shoes, I took up my position in the centre. We must have made a quaint assembly indeed. We took a track beside the receding cliffs for some miles as the totem shrine was at a spot called Beera, some five miles or so west of the Telegraph Station. Two natives of Willilambi (Twilight Cove), Wirrgain and Karnduing, of the eaglehawk and sacred spear totems, ran on either side of us, sometimes covering their mouths with their hands and emitting long blood-curdling tremolo “eaglehawk” screams that echoed eerily along the cliffs. Every now and again, we came to places along our road where fires had been lighted, tended by other men who beat upon the fires with fresh green branches, and solemnly steeped us, one and all, in the dense smoke that arose.

At length we reached a wide totem road, with cleared spaces some fifty yards in diameter at either end. A great fire was lighted in the centre of this. At a given signal, we each gathered a mallee branch to hold in the right hand, and spread out in a wide-flung half-moon, of which I still held the centre, all sitting in a semicircle and facing the road.

On a shrill, high note, with the branches beating the ground, began the song of the totems, native cat, curlew, eaglehawk, kangaroo hong kong china tour, wallaby, emu, mallee-hen, and so on through the whole gamut of those assembled.

“Yudu!” came a shout from one of the elders. (“Shut your eyes!”) With bowed heads, in a tense silence and with closed eyes, the great crowd of squatting natives bent to the ground. I ventured to watch.

Posted by 寂しい夜 at 11:57Comments(0)










碧海青天,彩霞悠曼。百花妖豔,光陰有限。我們如何踏上回歸線?不再彼此對岸,遙遙韓國 午餐肉顧盼。讓天長地久牽系兩端,讓紅玫瑰沿途燦爛,把我們的前程裝點。  

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